Supply-Demand Tight Balance Contests Macro Pressure, SHFE Tin Closes Lower Under Pressure at Noon [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the afternoon session on November 21, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract closed at 289,750 yuan/mt, down 3,720 yuan from the previous day, marking a significant decline. SHFE tin fluctuated downward in the morning session. Overnight, LME tin closed at $37,035/mt, edging up 0.24%, but during the Asian trading hours, the LME tin electron 3 contract fluctuated downward to around $36,725, indicating overseas markets also faced pressure.

From a macro perspective, the latest US non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, yet the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. This contradictory data sparked deep divisions in the market regarding the US Fed's policy path, causing the US dollar index to surge briefly and base metals to come under broad pressure. Concurrently, the three major US stock indices closed lower, with a noticeable cooling in market risk appetite prompting bulls to take profits and exit the tin market. Domestically, while signs of economic recovery resilience emerged, the transmission of macro tailwinds to the industrial sector remained hindered, leading investors to maintain an overall cautious stance. Spot market trading was generally sluggish today, with downstream enterprises making only sporadic just-in-time procurement, and most participants remained on the sidelines.

Looking ahead to the afternoon session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract finds short-term technical support near 285,000 yuan, but amid cautious macro sentiment and a weak supply-demand dynamic, tin prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. The market will closely monitor the progress of Myanmar mine supply recovery and changes in downstream actual consumption, as these factors will determine the subsequent breakout direction for tin prices.